Monday, March 28, 2011

American League Preview

American League East



Boston Red Sox (95-67) - How can you not love what this team did in the off season?  They added a potent left handed power hitter in Adrian Gonzalez who might hit 40+ HR's playing half his games at Fenway Park.  They added a 5 tool RF in Carl Crawford that will give them incredible speed at the top of the lineup.  John Lester and Clay Bucholz are primed to dominate the competition at the top of the rotation.  Can Josh Beckett and John Lackey stay healthy enough/pitch well enough to get them over the top in October?  That's probably the most difficult question to answer.  Don't be surprised if closer Jonathan Papelbon is traded mid-season with young Daniel Bard and veteran Bobby Jenks available to fill the role for the free agent to be.  If the team has better luck with injuries in 2011 they are clearly the class of this division.



Tampa Bay Rays (87-75) - They can't replace Carl Crawford in their lineup, but I do like the one year gambles on Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez.  Both guys should be high OBP and will be looking for bounce back years.  The rotation should be among the best in baseball with Ace David Price, backed up by James Shields and young guns, Jeff Niemann and Jeremy Hellickson.  Hellickson in particular seems ready to dominate.  I don't think this team will miss Carlos Pena's bat as much as some might think given the number of outs he seemed to make.  I'll call for the Rays to edge out the Yankees for the Wild Card.



NY Yankees (86-76) - I don't think the lineup is good enough to make up for what should be a garbage rotation.  Even if AJ Burnett lives up to 80% of his potential, the Yankees are still throwing out question marks at the 4th and 5th spot of their rotation.  The bullpen looks great with the addition of Rafael Soriano to bridge the gap between starters and Mariano Rivera.  But come on, does nyone really think Andruw Jones or Russel Martin should be full time players any more?  Are A-Rod and Derek Jeter mere mortals going forward?



Toronto Blue Jays (82-80) - This Blue Jays team could win many other divisions in baseball.  The starting rotation averages about 24 years of age and they could all be good very soon.  Woodlands product Kyle Drabek will begin the year as the #2 starter behind Ricky Romero.  The lineup has a ton of potential if Adam Lind and Aaron Hill can live up to their potential behind HR king Jose Bautista. 



Baltimore Orioles (76-86) - There's alot to like about the O's "O" if Derek Lee and Vladimir Guererro can stay healthy.  New 3B addition Mark Reynolds will probably hit 30+ HR's while he strikes out almost 200 times.  Not very many lineups have the potential for 8 different 20HR hitters.  The rotation is shaky, though I think Brian Matusz is a future ace.

AL Central



Minnesota Twins (84-78) - This team's season is certainly in peril due to health concerns.  Will Justin Morneau every full recover from his concussion he suffered last season?  Will closer Joe Nathan make it all the way back from Tommy John surgery?  Can Francisco Liriano stay healthy all season?  The lineup could be the American League's best, but if Carl Pavano is still your game 1 starter come post season, your ceiling is rather low.



Chicago White Sox (82-80) - I like the Adam Dunn addition.  He probably hits 40 bombs in the band box.  If Jake Peavy can't ever stay healthy it doesn't seem like this pitching staff has what it takes to be a big time contender.  I'd like to see 2B Gordon Beckham take the next step from prospect to above average MLB starter.  This team overall is older than dirt so they will prone to the injury bug.



Detroit Tigers (81-81) - This team has a top heavy lineup lead by MVP drunk Miguel Cabrera.  Do either Magglio Ordonez or Victor Martinez have an All Star Caliber year left in them?  The bullpen looks outstanding anchored by "Papa Grande" Jose Valverde and the sneaky good Joaquin Benoit.  After Justin Verlander, there seems to be some uncertainty in the rotation.




Kansas City Royals (73-89) - Quick name a Kansas City Royal.  Nope, Zack Grienke is a Brewer.  Everyone around baseball says the Royals have the best prospects in MLB right now, but that probably does not manifest itself this season.  The Royals really need former Rockies' ace Jeff Francis to get healthy quickly, because they can't be taken seriously when Luke Hochevar is their #1 starter.  They will lead the league in best nickname as Royals All Star Closer, Joakim Soria has asked to change his name from "The Mexicutioner" to "His Mexillency".



Cleveland Indians (72-90) Poor Cleveland.  They are the only city worse off than Houston right now.  Their lineup is really dreadful outside of Shin-Soo Choo and their young catcher Carlos Santana.  Fausto Carmona should be a quality starting pitcher that could get traded by the deadline.  Former Astro Adam Everett made their roster if you're interested.

AL West



Texas Rangers (86-74) - There's alot to like about this organization top to bottom.  With the exception of the loss of Cliff Lee to Philadelphia this team is loaded with talent.  I think letting Vlad Guererro go in exchange for signing 3B Adrian Beltre was a gamble worth taking.  Michael Young is a pro who will not let his unhappiness upset the team.  I'm still not sure why the Angels traded Mike Napoli, but he could hit 25 HR's for Texas.  Their rotation doesn't really have a dominator, but they won't give up many runs with the gold glovers behind them.  The best is yet to come from this Rangers squad who has massive amounts of pipeline talent and payroll flexibility in its future.



Oakland A's (82-80) - Top to bottom, this could be the best pitching staff in the majors, however, Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson do come with some health concerns. I'm not sure that adding Josh Willingham and Hideki Matsui to your lineup will truly bridge the power gap this team faced last season.  Still, with a 3.59 ERA last season (tops in the AL) and the best pitchers park in the big leagues, the A's will play a ton of close games which could have it contend in this weak division.



LA Angels (77-85) - Ugh...I do not like the rotation after Jered Weaver and Dan Haren.  Scott Kazmir should not be taking regular turns on an independent league club.  The Angels are much more confident in Vernon Wells than I am.  Tori Hunter isn't quite what he once was as a hitter, but he and Michael Bourn are by far the most exciting defensive players in the game.



Seattle Mariners (64-98) Hey we have Ichiro and King Felix! But we're also starting Jack Cust as our clean-up hitter.  This lineup is terrible, like Astros bad.  The Mariners had better hope Justin Smoak can hit since he was the top prize in the Cliff Lee Trade.  I wonder if the Mariners might consider moving Hernandez for a monster package of prospects at midseason (Yankees? Rangers? Marlins?)

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